Kenneth Thorpe 2005

Impacts of Health Care Reform: Projections of Costs and Savings

By: National Coalition on Health Care
By: Kenneth E. Thorpe, PhD
Published: 2005
Financed by: National Coalition on Health Care
Legislation analyzed: none, plan analyzed developed by the author.


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Summary

Tables 1 and 2 display what the trajectory of national health care spending would be if we were to undertake the reforms recommended by the NCHC. In Scenarios 1 through 3, savings would begin in the fourth year of implementation — 2010 — and rise every year thereafter. In 2015, annual savings would range from $125 billion to about $131 billion; total savings in the first decade of reform — even after taking into account the increases in federal spending needed to secure universal coverage — would amount to between $320 billion and $369 billion. In Scenario 4, savings would begin in the first year of implementation and would be about $182 billion in 2015; total savings in the first decade of implementation would exceed $1.1 trillion.